Wednesday, 12 February 2014
Slight boost expected for region in 2014
IN 2014 the economies of the region are expected to grow by 2.5 per cent, up from the 1.5 per cent in 2013. However, in 2014, unemployment is expected to increase in the region.
Dr. Justin Ram, Director, Economics Department at the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), addressed a news conference on Tuesday at the Bank’s headquarters to highlight the performance of the region for 2013 and to give an outlook for 2014.
Dr. Ram indicated that “growth in 2014 will be driven by the continued recoveries in Tourism as well as Foreign Direct Investment, which would have spin-off benefits in terms of construction and other real sector activity”.
The CDB, in its performance report, stated that “the region is expected to accelerate, growing by 2.5 per cent on average in 2014, led by Guyana, Haiti and Suriname”.
Growth is expected for all 19 BMCs, with most again set to grow by one per cent to three per cent. However, unemployment is expected to remain high, reflecting labour market rigidities and in some cases, fiscal consolidation leading to cutbacks in public sector spending.
In terms of performance in 2013, preliminary estimates indicate that CDB’s BMCs grew by an average of 1.5 per cent in 2013 compared with 1.2 per cent in 2012. However, there were some exceptions, there was a drop in output namely in Anguilla, Barbados, British Virgin Islands and in St. Lucia.
The Director explained, “Goods-based economies outperformed service-oriented economies of our region, most of the growth was led by Guyana, Haiti and Suriname and to some extent Trinidad and Tobago, although the growth rate of that economy was not as high as the other three.
Manufacturing rebounded in Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana and in Barbados, where food production also showed some improvement and that helped its manufacturing sector.
In the tourism sector, stay-over arrivals increased across nations, as the recovery in key US and Euro Area markets continued.
The exceptions were Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, where airlift challenges and high intra-regional travel costs affected visitor arrivals.
“Due to the fact we have lower tourism arrivals and lower tourism receipts, there has been a knock-on effect of the fiscal performance of many of our countries,” the CDB said.
“However, small size is no excuse for underperformance. Caribbean economies are still lagging behind other small island developing states; it means that certain critical structural problems need to be addressed within our economies if we are to have sustainable and lasting growth in the future. Some of these reforms address the cost of doing business in our countries, examining overall cost of energy in our economies as well as the need of governments to further tighten our fiscal accounts.”
He made mention that in St. Lucia and Barbados, there was notable deterioration in debt accumulation.
Dr. Ram identified in the regional outlook, “The recovery in regional tourism is expected to strengthen with the anticipated faster growth in the US and a return in the Euro Area as well as expectations of improved airlift and reduced fuel cost resulting from further declines in commodity prices.
“Regional policymakers are faced with a number of critical challenges in 2014. The need for further fiscal adjustment in several BMCs is juxtaposed with the need to increase investment in infrastructure and undertake critical policy reform needed to create a more enabling environment for private sector development.
“These challenges are compounded by the region’s vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change impacts, and its dependence on imports for food and fuel. Issues of adjustment, competitiveness, resilience, and critically, access to finance for investment in these areas will, therefore, be the focus of CDB’s engagement with its BMCs in 2014.” (NB)
CTO: Look to South America
The Caribbean is being encouraged to look into exploring and exploiting the South American market more, by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO).
This view was proposed by the Director of Research and Information Technology, CTO, Winfield Griffith, as he dissected the numbers at the press briefing in USVI on Monday.
Griffith said, “When we examine tourism globally, new markets with lots of potential for the Caribbean are clearly emerging from among the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). In particular, Brazilians have started to show interest in the Caribbean. [...] Indeed, now seems to be the right time to pursue the South American market with full vigour.”
Hence, he disclosed, “IADB (Inter-American Development Bank) has recognised the enormous potential for engaging this new market and has asked CTO to facilitate the process of communicating information relating to IADB funding and technical assistance to Caribbean countries.”
In her report, Chairman of the CTO, Beverly Nicholson-Doty, gave the figures which supported Griffith’s appeal for more of a focus to be placed on the South American market by the Caribbean, since it shows promise.
Nicholson-Doty admitted that the economic challenges being faced in the key markets such as the United States, Canada and Europe are impacting the growth within the regional tourism industry, but she explained from the figures that the situation in South America seems different, as the region is seeing an influx of arrivals being recorded from there still.
She said, “The 1.8 per cent rise is an indication that the momentum experienced over the previous two years has slowed, due mainly to the relatively weak economic conditions in the key markets. However, while the main source markets are sputtering, tourists from South America are flocking to the region in large numbers.”
And though she disclosed that, “Mixed performance among the destinations resulted in [that] one-point-eight per cent rise in tourist arrivals, a lot slower than the 4.9 per cent rise in 2012.”
She reported that “still the Caribbean welcomed over 25 million stay-over visitors last year, up from 24.6 million in 2012”.
Of which she stated, “The total number of arrivals from that [South American] region climbed from an estimated 859 000 in 2009 to nearly 1.5 million last year. That’s 13 per cent higher than 2012 and a whopping 70 per cent over 2009.”
And she affirmed, “This is due to the strong economies in South America, particularly Brazil and Venezuela.” (KG)
Wednesday, 5 February 2014
New women’s competition approved by ICC Board
...Positive progress update on ICC World Twenty20 in Bangladesh
The ICC Board has approved the introduction of an International Women’s Championship. This bi-lateral competition involving the top eight ranked women’s teams will determine qualification for the next Women’s World Cup.
Competing countries will include Australia, West Indies, England, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, South Africa, India and Pakistan with promotion and relegation at the end of the first cycle.
Each team will play the others in a series of matches between mid-2014 and the end of 2016, with the top teams qualifying automatically for the ICC Women’s World Cup in 2017.
ICC Chief Executive David Richardson said: “This is a very positive step for the profile and competitiveness of women’s cricket.
“It guarantees a more regular and balanced programme of meaningful ODI cricket for a broader group of nations than ever before.
“The ICC Women’s World Cup last year set a new benchmark in terms of quality and public interest and with this added context the pathway to the 2017 event in England looks really exciting.”
The bottom countries at the end of the International Women’s Championship will be joined by a number of teams from the ICC’s regional qualification structures to play in an ICC Women’s World Cup Qualifier which will determine the final Women’s World Cup participants.
ICC World Twenty20 Bangladesh 2014
The ICC Board received an update on the ICC World Twenty20 in Bangladesh that included a report from a recent security meeting in Dhaka and noted the positive progress that had been made.
Social media and managing reputation
Governments, tourist boards, and the travel industry spend millions of dollars each year to create a positive picture of the Caribbean and the visitor experience: a sense that all is well in a country and that a destination and a vacation will provide a happy and memorable time. They also have a network of information services providing news and information locally and internationally.
However, recent damaging coverage about deaths and violent criminal acts against visitors in a number of Caribbean nations has not only caused the media in key tourism feeder markets to question the safety of visitors, but is now resulting in interested parties, from lawyers to victims, disseminating negative messages on social media in ways that cannot be controlled and, if inaccurate, are hard to refute.
For example, in the Bahamas over the last year there has been a wave of serious crime against visitors and residents alike. It has become a national issue that is leading both the Bahamas government and the main opposition party to consider the reintroduction of capital punishment as a deterrent, and more generally much harsher sentencing of those caught and found guilty.
Reflecting local concern, particularly in relation to cruise visitors, the islands’ print, broadcast and on-line media have offered extensive coverage and commentary on the issue, and separately the US Government has recently amended it travel advisory notice.
One particularly striking piece reflecting the challenges posed by on-line commentary appeared in the Nassau Guardian. It quoted Jim Walker, a US Attorney and a partner in the Miami firm Walker and O’Neal, as suggesting in his blog that Nassau ‘may be one gunshot away’ from seeing cruise lines drop the island from their itineraries. The newspaper also quoted Mr Walker as suggesting that the Bahamas had not listened to the concerns of the cruise lines and that the islands may be progressing along a path similar to that which led them to withdraw from other nations in the past. The attorney was also reported as saying that the Caribbean now had some of the most dangerous ports in the world which he named.
To be fair, Mr Walker is also a critic of the cruise lines. In recent months he has questioned a number developments including the unwillingness of the cruise companies to admit to the scale of problems of on-board illness among passengers, and the way in which they deal with the disappearance overboard at sea of crew or passengers.
Mr Walker, whose views are available on his Cruise Law News blog, is just one of a number of professionals associated with the industry and new media whose opinions are widely read by travellers or those with an interest in the economics or politics of the region.
His commentaries expand on the huge success of sites like Trip Advisor which are causing visitors, quite understandably, to rely more on peer reviews, word of mouth and personal experience, to decide where they will travel to, and less on what national and industry marketing and country branding are telling them.
Whether Mr Walker’s views are or are not accurate is not the point. What is apparent is that those countries or companies whose reputation he is questioning are for the most part either silent or have not been able to obtain equal coverage or social media followings for their view.
When it comes to addressing damaging comments in the mainstream media or on social networking sites, few in Caribbean governments or industry so far seem to have developed any viable social media strategy to address or respond to comments that may be damaging or incorrect.
Nor do many Caribbean politicians or business figures yet fully recognise the international power of Facebook, YouTube, or Twitter and how best to develop and use a social media persona to create and most importantly maintain a dialogue when times are easy. Instead, the most common approach is to message for domestic consumption at the time of elections or political events, be silent at almost all other times, and not seize the opportunity to respond rapidly when things go wrong.
A short while ago, Debbie Ransome, the former producer of the now sadly defunct BBC Caribbean Service, wrote in her online site Caribbean Intelligence about how the Caribbean tweets. She found that this varied by country, and was happening in many different ways, with the predominant themes being cricket, travel, politics and community support.
What she seemed to suggest is that despite the Caribbean’s high levels of Internet and social media penetration, the use of Twitter and other platforms is still in its infancy as a method of image building and reputational management.
What this implies is that apart from having a traditional media strategy to address international concerns and reputational damage when rare events occur, such as the recent murder of a British yachtsman in St Lucia, there is a need to develop pro-active social media strategies.
By failing to act in good time to respond publicly to events, allegations or concerns; by not finding ways to remind that similar problems regrettably occur in the US or Europe; and, in the case of tourism, noting that almost all visitors have a safe and happy experience, the greater likelihood is, in relation to social media and blogs, as well as the mainstream media, the case made by most Caribbean nations will go unheard.
What is clear is that reputational damage and comment is certain to grow, not least in the case of tourism because almost all visitors are on-line, increasingly use social media and say so when the politics, the judicial system, personal safety, and the rule of law are not equivalent to where they reside.
Addressing this will not be easy. What therefore may now be required is for governments and industry to determine and develop strategies that respond rapidly and honestly in real time to inaccuracies and lack of balance that social media, blogs and on-line citizen journalism are prone to.
A robust, professionally managed response strategy may be expensive, but it is likely to be much less costly than the economic consequences of reputational damage.
(David Jessop is the Director of the Caribbean Council and can be contacted at david.jessop@caribbean-council.org. Previous columns can be found at www. caribbean-council.org)
Canada-CARICOM trade talks shrouded in doubt
Negotiations on a trade agreement between Canada and Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries have limped along for over five years. Unless political will and energy is now put into the process, the negotiations could fizzle out by the end of June – a ‘drop-dead’ date now accepted by both sides.
Abandonment of these negotiations would not be good for Canada and certainly not for CARICOM countries. For, while the negotiations focus on trade and investment and rules that guide them, the relationship between Canada and CARICOM goes far beyond these considerations.
In Canada’s case, although its merchandise trade with all CARICOM countries is less than 1 per cent of its total trade in goods, successive governments have enjoyed close relations with 12 of the Commonwealth Caribbean countries that are part of the 14 independent countries of CARICOM. Until recently, Canadian governments have been able to rely on Commonwealth Caribbean governments for support on hemispheric and international issues reflecting their shared values and common interests.
That there has been a rupture in that long-term support is the fault of both sides and is in the interest of neither. In recent years, both the Canadian and CARICOM governments have failed to maintain constructive and mutually beneficial engagement at high-levels, notwithstanding official visits to Canada by Prime Ministers Portia Simpson-Miller of Jamaica (October 2012) and Kamla Persad-Bissessar of Trinidad and Tobago (April 2013).
From a CARICOM viewpoint, Canada should remain a crucially important hemispheric, Commonwealth and international partner. Canada is the third largest market for exports of goods from CARICOM after the United States (over 50 per cent) and the European Union (about 12 per cent).
And, although Canada represents only 4 per cent of CARICOM’s market for the export of goods, it is the only developed country with which CARICOM enjoys a trade surplus. Additionally, Canada is home to a significant number of CARICOM’s diaspora; it is a major source of tourists to the region; and Canadian private sector investment in the region in a variety of industries, including banking, tourism and mining, is huge – direct investment is in excess of US$75 billion, and trade in services is roughly US$3 billion annually. Additionally, Canada is a significant aid contributor to CARICOM countries. In 2007, Prime Minister Stephen Harper pledged US$600 million to CARICOM countries (except Haiti which attracts specific funding), about two-thirds of which has been allocated over the last six years.
To be fair to Canada, successive Liberal and Conservative governments tried for years to engage CARICOM in settling a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), but it was not until 2008 that the Caribbean governments agreed to engage Canada and then only when the CARIB-CAN agreement (established in 1986) was approaching its scheduled expiration in 2011. Under the CARIB-CAN arrangement, CARICOM goods, with a few exceptions, entered the Canadian market duty-free with no reciprocal benefits for Canadian exports to CARICOM. The dilatory pace of the negotiations saw the CARIBCAN Agreement run out and Canada had to apply to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to extend it until 2013 in the interest of CARICOM states. That extension has now expired and the WTO is unlikely to further extend it even if Canada were minded to seek another extension. In this connection, access to the Canadian market for CARICOM goods (with the possible exception of rum which is governed by a separate Protocol) is now endangered.
In the meantime, the Canadian government has issued a list of countries which reflects its priorities for FTAs – no Caribbean country is among them. Canada is looking to dynamic markets in Asia. It is to those markets that the government now wishes to devote its resources. In this context, prolonging negotiations on a FTA with CARICOM that shows no sense of urgency, is a distraction for Canada. Further, in September 2013, the Canadian government issued an Order withdrawing General Preferential Tariffs (GPT) treatment from 72 higher-income and trade-competitive countries – 11 CARICOM countries are among them; only Belize, Guyana and Haiti, because of their low-income, are not affected.
In their present economic circumstances, CARICOM countries need a continuing and structured relationship with Canada that governs trade and investment. They also need an improved relationship with Canada all round. This is why the political leadership of CARICOM should provide their negotiators with a more flexible mandate than they now have. For example, CARICOM countries are said to be resisting co-operation agreements that Canada is seeking on labour and environmental standards, but these are the same standards to which CARICOM countries have already signed on with the EU in their Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). Since the standards will have to be met anyway, the reason for the resistance is difficult to fathom.
Canada also wants a chapter in the FTA to govern investment. This is a two-way street. Investment promotion and protection agreements are in the interest of CARICOM countries as they provide a high level of comfort for foreign investment that the region critically needs. Further, Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago already have investment treaties with Canada so that such treaties are nothing out of the ordinary. In Guyana’s case, where Canadian firms have responded to invitations to invest in the mining sector that is giving the country considerable dividends, an investment chapter in the FTA could only help.
Negotiations on services are reportedly still a problem area for CARICOM governments, but there has been a history of co-operation between Canada and CARICOM countries in services particularly banking and tourism. If flexibility is given to negotiators on both sides, there is every reason to be optimistic about a successful conclusion. Some CARICOM governments would also now be troubled over removing tariffs on Canadian goods entering their countries. The governments are already facing difficulties implementing the tariff cuts to which they signed-up with the EU under the EPA, and they are tormented about how to replace the direct revenues they will lose. However, the tariff cuts with the EU are spread out over a period of years; Canada should agree to a similar arrangement particularly for agriculture.
There are only two negotiating sessions scheduled before June 30 when a FTA between Canada and CARICOM will be effectively dead. Political will and direction are needed on both sides to conclude a realistic and beneficial arrangement. Our leaders should provide it, and so should the leadership of Canada. The Canada-Commonwealth Caribbean relationship has long been ‘special’ to the benefit of both. Allowing the current FTA negotiations to fail could herald the erosion of that ‘specialness’- to the detriment of both, but more proximately of CARICOM.
And, the big question is: if CARICOM cannot settle a FTA with Canada, what will happen with the US (their biggest market) when the present Caribbean-US arrangement ends?
(Sir Ronald Sanders is a Consultant, Senior Research Fellow at London University and former Caribbean diplomat. Responses and previous commentaries: www.sirronaldsanders.com)
Redefining social interaction
Like the wheel, steam engine, the motor car and the personal computer, social media phenomenon Facebook can take its place among one of the most impactful innovations in history. Tuesday marked ten years that the world has been logging onto creator Mark Zuckerburg’s virtual world, which reportedly had a membership of 1.2 billion monthly users as of January 2014. During that time, popular culture, social interaction and many other aspects of human civilisation have been shaped by the existence of Facebook. It has transcended language, religious and cultural barriers; and has truly changed the face of the world.
It would not be an exaggeration to label the social media site as revolutionary. In fact, it has been seen as playing an important role in the political changes that swept across the Middle East and North Africa at the start of this decade, known as the Arab Spring. Many posit that by giving young people an outlet to express themselves in what is normally seen by the West as repressive societies, it helped bring together already discontent populations and brought their voices to the sympathetic ear of the Western world. Meanwhile, Facebook’s development from an online hangout for US college students to a mammoth global network has also revolutionised the way that persons access information and the ways that businesses interact with consumers.
On a more personal, but no less widespread a scale, Facebook has changed the way that individuals interact with each other on a daily basis, and has merged the offline and online worlds. Parting ways with a new acquaintance invariably ends with a request to ‘friend me on Facebook’, as a means of keeping the connection going. Indeed, one of the notable impacts of Facebook has been the adding of new words and meanings to the English lexicon – friend (as a verb), unfriend, poke, wall, tag, like and share… these terms have all taken on new life with the advent and expansion of Facebook.
With the merging of offline and online worlds, the line that separates private and public has become very blurred and determining its exact location is a task that is keeping legal minds around the world busy. One’s Facebook profile is considered to be a very personal thing, but the information that is posted there is being released into the public domain and can often have repercussions offline. Human resource managers hardly make a new hire without first checking out the candidate’s Facebook profile and employees have been fired due to statements and photos posted on the site.
Meanwhile, many have argued that a site created to make people more connected has actually aided in more anti-social behaviours. We see others’ personal photos, news and thoughts, but all under the impersonal glare of a computer or smartphone screen. When offline, we spend so much time documenting our activity to be shared later on social media, that we forget to live in the moment and actually savour the experience. We know more about each other, but do we empathise less?
For many, Facebook was their first foray into the social media world, which now has a dizzying array of platforms for sharing information, such as Twitter, Tumblr, Instagram and the list goes on. Nonetheless, there doesn’t seem to be any real threat to Facebook’s popularity. At ten years old, Facebook’s staying power has probably earned it the role of the wise, older sibling in the rapidly-changing world of social media. We wonder, though, as the site continues to evolve in both form and function, will it remain a benign ‘big brother’?
Sandals Foundation comes to Grenada
WITH the new Sandals La Source resort having already given the economy an employment boost over the last 10 months, Grenada can now also expect to benefit from the community outreach efforts of the Sandals Foundation.
Last Friday, President of the Sandals Foundation Board and CEO of Sandals Resorts International (SRI), Adam Stewart, along with SRI Regional Public Relations Manager, Dominic Fedee, presented the non-profit organisation’s 2009-2013 report and gave an overview of the work of the Foundation at a press conference at Sandals La Source.
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| President of the Sandals Foundation Board and CEO of Sandals Resorts International (SRI), Adam Stewart. |
In Grenada, Sandals Foundation has already implemented its Reading Road Trip programme, which takes donors into the communities so they can interact with the persons whose lives are being improved by the work of the Foundation. Other projects identified for possible collaboration include the School for the Blind, the Dove Preservation Sanctuary, as well as sport development and community programmes.
Said Fedee, “Definitely some of the staple Sandals Foundation programmes [will be introduced]. You will see a big injection in education through our Care For Kids programme, which is our scholarship programme which will touch at least 10 Grenadian secondary school students… Once they continue doing well at school, we are willing to fund their education for as much as seven years through that programme.”
Sandals Foundation is currently involved in over 300 projects across the seven Caribbean islands where SRI operates. Focusing on the areas of education, community development and the environment, some of these initiatives include the establishment of schools, sports academies and marine parks. Each country has a sub-committee which is made up of persons from within the communities themselves, who help identify long-term projects to be ratified at the board level.
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| SRI Regional Public Relations Manager, Dominic Fedee. |
“The team members of our company are the ones that drive this every day and those team members, nine and half times out of ten, live right outside in these communities; so you get that personal legitimacy to bring this thing to life.”
Confident about collections
Responding to whether he anticipates donations to drop in the face of the ongoing global economic difficulties, he declared, “I have every intention of more than doubling it [amount of donations collected] this year.
“The key to charitable works and what people misunderstand way too often is you don’t have to give a lot; you have to get a little bit from a lot of people,” he contended.
“The key to this is the fact that we have over one million customers a year and we just gently talk to them about the challenges these countries have. If they’re not interested, we don’t force it upon them, but I believe personally … that we live in a generation today, between connectivity and social media, that the world is so sensitised to the challenges that we have.
“In addition to tapping into the existing database of loyal Sandals customers, the Foundation is currently developing a public service announcement to be aired in its source markets with the donated efforts of a popular US film director and a US female hip-hop artiste.
“The sky is really the limit for community development with the Sandals Foundation. We are in this for the long run. We are more than an investor; we are partners for the future of the communities that we invest in,” said Fedee.
“We have just landed and the hotel is only six weeks old, so the Foundation is just doing its research and making sure that we do things properly so that Grenada can have the best experience.
“It will take us another three or four months to really identify those marquee programmes and then we’ll start to work towards getting them up and running,” Stewart concluded. (YA)
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